The Beveridge Curve in the Housing Market: Supply and Disequilibrium

There is a long-run `Beveridge Curve' in the Housing market given by the negative relationship between the vacancy rate of housing and the rate of household formation. This is true in the owner-occupied market, the rental market, and the total market for housing irrespective of ownership status. The Beveridge Curve represents a long-run supply condition that can be explained by assuming that (1) the cost to produce a new house is decreasing in the growth rate of the housing stock and (2) the probability to sell a new house is decreasing in the vacancy rate. Short-run deviations from the Beveridge curve represent a measurement of oversupply. Using a years of supply metric, for the total housing market irrespective of ownership, in 2007-2008 there were 0.995 years of supply, more than three times the previous peak of 0.285 years of supply in 1973-1974. Comparing the rental market to the owner-occupied market, oversupply generally shows up in the rental market, not the owner-occupied market and the oversupply in the rental market is twice as volatile as oversupply in the owner-occupied market, implying that a large part of the market adjustment to housing supply occurs in the rental market. Interestingly two-thirds of the oversupply in 2007-2008 resided in the rental market as opposed to the owner-occupied market. Using FHFA data for house prices, 46% of the movements in oversupply in the owner-occupied market since 1975 can be explained by house price movements. The last result suggests that at short horizons (4-6 years) house prices are not determined by supply. Rather, house prices drive supply at short time horizons, permitting bubbles and oversupplies of housing to form.

Money, Price Dispersion and Welfare

We introduce heterogeneous preferences into a tractable model of monetary search to generate price dispersion, and then examine the effects of money growth on price dispersion and welfare. With buyers' search intensity fixed, we find that money growth increases the range of (real) prices and lowers welfare as agents shift more of their consumption to less desirable goods. When buyers' search intensity is endogenous, multiple equilibria are possible. In the equilibrium with the highest welfare level, money growth reduces welfare and increases the range of prices, while having ambiguous effects on search intensity. However, there can be a welfare-inferior equilibrium in which an increase in money growth increases search intensity, increases welfare, and reduces the range of prices.Price dispersion; Search; Efficiency

Hedge fund portfolio selection with modified expected shortfall

Modified Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are recently introduced downside risk estimators based on the Cornish-Fisher expansion for assets such as hedge funds whose returns are non-normally distributed. Modified VaR has been widely implemented as a portfolio selection criterion. We are the first to investigate hedge fund portfolio selection using modified ES as optimality criterion. We show that for the EDHEC hedge fund style indices, the optimal portfolios based on modified ES outperform out-of-sample the EDHEC Fund of Funds index and have better risk characteristics than the equal-weighted and Fund of Funds portfolios.portfolio optimization, modified expected shortfall, non-normal returns

Advancing Spatiotemporal Research of Visitor Travel Patterns Within Parks and Protected Areas

Recent technological advances have made it possible to more accurately understand visitor travel patterns and their associated impacts. These advancements help to: accumulate voluminous data sets, collect alternative location data similar to GPS data, conduct spatiotemporal inferential statistics, and advance spatiotemporal visualizations. However, investigations of visitor travel patterns have not kept pace with recent technological advancements. Therefore, the purpose of this dissertation was to advance spatiotemporal research of visitor travel patterns within parks and protected areas by leveraging new technologies. The studies reported in this dissertation were designed to begin filling this gap, and include results from research conducted at: 1) Theodore Roosevelt National Park to identify which spatiotemporal variables are the most important to managers for understanding visitor travel patterns; 2) Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park to identify air tour travel patterns; and 3) the Bonneville Salt Flats to understand visitor travel patterns in a dispersed recreation setting that lacks organizational infrastructure. These three independent but conceptually linked studies were designed to inform our understanding of visitor travel patterns within parks and protected areas. This information is important so that park managers: a) understand how space and time influence visitor routes; and b) have relevant information to continue to conserve the biophysical resource while providing opportunities for quality visitor experiences. Results from the study at Theodore Roosevelt National Park showed that managers identified three temporal variables as being the most important towards understanding visitor travel patterns. These variables were analyzed to determine time allocation and vehicle speed patterns. Results from the study at Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park determined air tour travel patterns and which terrestrial attraction areas were the most affected by air tours. The study at the Bonneville Salt Flats identified potential areas of conflict and designed areas recommended for monitoring. Overall, this dissertation contributes to further understanding of visitor travel patterns, which provides information for managers to continue conserving parks and protected areas for the benefit of society

Master of Science

thesisHikers that experience acceptable ecological trail conditions are more likely to act as trail stewards, set proper trail etiquette examples, and use low-impact practices. However, managers and researchers do not thoroughly understand the relationships between ecological trail conditions, preferences for trail conditions, and experiential elements of long-distance hiking. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate how ecological trail conditions influence particular experiential elements of long-distance hiking on the Appalachian Trail. The researcher used a mixed-methods approach involving semi structured interviews (n = 17), quantitative questionnaires (n = 336), ecological measurements of trail conditions (734 miles of trail), and modified Recreation Suitability Mapping (RSM) to quantify the relationships between five trail conditions (trail incision, muddiness, rugosity, trail width, and gradient) and four elements of the long-distance hiking experience (level of challenge, perceived impact to the musculoskeletal system, valuation of trail tread aesthetics, and the ability to maintain an ideal hiking pace). The researcher weighted and analyzed hikers' preferences for trail conditions using SPSS 22.0, and mapped the resulting data using ArcMap 10.2.2. Results suggest that valuation of trail tread aesthetics was the most important element of the long-distance hiking experience, and that muddiness had the most influence on valuation of trail tread aesthetics. The modified RSM techniques used in this study provided an efficient means to compare trail sections, and identify relationships between trail conditions and experiential elements. The methods and results have implications for trail managers regarding the effects of trail conditions on the hiking experience, enhancement of the hiking experience, and construction and utilization of informative maps